With Staten Island Republicans still searching for a candidate a week after the death of Frank Powers, the Swing State Project is changing its rating of this race from “Tossup” to “Leans Democratic“.
Democrats landed a top tier candidate for this race in NYC Councilman Mike McMahon, who is rumored to have raised up to $400,000 for his campaign already. Meanwhile, the Staten Island GOP’s cold treatment of ex-Assemblyman Matthew Mirones, who was briefly considering stepping up for Team Red last week before he declined to run, left one local Republican insider exasperated: “It looks like they have been bending over backward to hand this race to Mike [McMahon].”
Richmond Republicans gathered fewer than 2000 signatures for Powers before his death. This is a bit more than the the 1,250 technically required to secure a place on the ballot, and party bigs can appoint a replacement candidate to Powers’s spot. But they might not have enough sigs to ensure that they’ll withstand potential legal challenges from Democrats – it’s very easy to knock out invalid signatures in NY. So the clock is ticking for the GOP to find an actual candidate and gather the required signatures before the state’s July 10th filing deadline.
If a replacement can’t be found, the GOP may have to fall back on unpopular physician Jamshad Wyne, the only currently announced candidate. Wyne would start the race in an extremely awkward position: he endorsed McMahon back in May. You can just imagine the Dem lit. Needless to say, this is not a match-up that the GOP would relish. Alternately, the Republicans might line up behind Conservative Party nominee Paul Atanasio, who lives in Brooklyn, was once involved in a nepotism scandal at a city agency, and – the best part – is not even a registered Republican.
Further complicating the GOP’s efforts to find a competent challenger is the DCCC’s decision to reserve $2.1 million in air time for this race. Is there any candidate out there who is willing to rush head-first into that kind of artillery barrage? If so, SSP may revisit its rating, but in light of the Staten Island GOP’s misfortunes and foibles, Democrats clearly have the upper hand in this race for the time being.
SSP’s complete list of House race ratings is available here.
The NY GOP can’t even get a 3rd tier candidate to run here. They’ve all but conceded the race.
The only two races that I think are at the same level are NY-25, and McMahon in the 13th is a stronger general election candidate then Dan Maffei, and VA-11. Right now I guess I would say VA-11, then NY-13, then NY-25.
Why isn’t SSP pushing any candidates for donation at the end of the fundraising quarter? First Quarter we had a big push with “Blue Majority” but that seems to have died with DailyKos creating its own “Orange to Blue”.
Is SSP holding off until they endorse individual candidates? Or what’s the deal going to be.
Of the candidates I have decided to donate to, ($15 each for NM-2 Teague, VA-2 Nye, OR-SEN Merkley, and LA-4 Carmouche) only Merkley shows up on SenateGuru’s “Expand the Map”. I mostly picked those races because they look like cheaper districts, and $15 might mean a little more to those house candidates, and I hate Smith.
I know Georgia’s primary is on the 15th and I know for some races we’ve gotten financial info a few days before the primary. When is that going to happen for Georgia? Or will we have to wait for Q2 reports that happen on the day of the primary.
What do you have against Steve Harrison? You refuse to acknowledge his existence except when I post criticizing the McMahon fest that this site has deteriorated into. There is a primary and Harrison as the 2006 candidate received a higher percentage of the vote than any Democrat ever under the Congressional district’s current configuration.
Based on your site’s dismissiveness of Harrison and this goes back before the current McMahon fest (your site embraced Recchia’s, who McMahon spent over a year trying to prop up to undermine Harrison before throwing him under the bus to run instead, campaign over Harrison), I ‘d have to say Swing State appears to be amore of a machine based site than a progressive site.
You criticize me for going negative on McMahon instead of positive on Harrison. Well here ya go.
Harrison was the 9th endorser of the Responsible Plan to Get out of Iraq. responsibleplan.com/. McMahon on the other hand according to Politico backs continued involvement. http://www.politico.com/news/s… Of course you will call pointing out these allegations as going negative.
Harrison has also favored creating 21st century jobs and ending fossil fuel dependency within 10 years by devoting the same resolve and resources this country devoted to putting a man on the moon.
Harrison favors single payer universal health coverage.
You seem to ignore this every time I mention this but Harrison did receive a higher percentage of the vote than any Democrat ever under the district’s current configuration. That’s something positive.
Harrison’s lit discusses issues and policy. McMahon’s lit says I’m a councilman vote for me.
For more information Harrison visit steveharrisonfircongress.com. For non machine generated coverage of this race visit dailygotham.com.
I must also add that Democrats.com has endoresed Harrison. That endorsement has generated over 500 individual donations via Act Blue over the last few days.
He received a higher percentage of the vote against a more difficult opponent than the Republicans will field this time around. Common sense should dictate if someone does better than anyone else without money that they be given a second chance with Money, instead of an any one but Harrison attitude. The achievement is certainly worth not being ignored when this race is being discussed. Harrison will do better against McMahon than the usually wrong conventional wisdom says he will do.
Harrison will get the majority of the progressive vote and progressives are more likely to vote in a primary.
Harrison is as well known on Staten Island outside McMahon’s north shore base as the opportunistic Councilman and much better known in Brooklyn (Discount the Brooklyn Dem party endorsement. It was given without a vote and Vito Lopez aka Boss Tweed (vitolopez.com)doesn’t want to give Harrison and his Bay Ridge allies Ralph Perfetto and Joanne Seminara power.)
the harrison backer posting here keeps mentioning that harrison won a higher percentage than any democrat got in this seat in its current incarnation. it’s true, but not helpful. there have only been 3 elections since redistricting in 2001. frank barbaro, in a much more republican year in 2004, got 41% against fossella. in 06, harrison got 43% in the best democratic year in 20 years.
that 2% improvement could be mr harrison’s great campaign, but more likely it was a very pro-democratic environment. carol shea-porter, gerry mcnerney, tim walz, dave loebsack, nancy boyda all BEAT established republican incumbents in that same year. i respect steve’s passionate supporters, but you can see how we might not see steve as the most likely to win based on his past record. mcmahon is a proven commodity and hails from staten island.
i thank steve for his spirited campaign in 06, but we don’t give people nominations because it’s their turn. we do it because they are the best candidates.
NY 13 current configuration was actually established in the 80s. And Harrison received a higher pct of the vote of any Democrat since the Molinari/Fossella dynasty began, including conservative Staten Island Democratic office holder with a vowel at the end of his last name (Which McMahon doesn’t have, which the conventional wisdom touted as a requirement along with being from Staten Island)and DCCC funding, Eric Vitaliano, who lost to a non incumbent Fossella in 1997. Vitiliano who was everything the conventional wisdom said was needed to win the election, couldn’t match Harrison’s numbers.